USDCAD update

As seems evident the previously held diagonal count was violated, however that has not changed my stance on this currency pair. As of the evidence obtained from the recent market action, the USD/CAD appears to be on the verge of a major turn to the upside.

Posted above is a 2 day chart with compressed Elliott wave labels, As seems evident from above the momentum of the declines into the 2011 has lost steam which is reflected by the obvious divergence on the MACD indicator. Another important point to note on the MACD is that we have a potential Zero line reversal signal in the making. The MACD zero line usually acts as support for counter trend moves (decline from OCT 2011). Also notice the inverse head and shoulders pattern highlighted above. The range from the head to the neckline is 1300 pips, which would be our measuring tool at a break of the neckline visible above.

Above is a COT chart of the CAD futures, the commercial NET short CAD positions was at an all time high in 2011 which suggests that the 2011 peak in the Canadian dollar is probably more important than any seen since the early 90s

Above is a more detailed look of the decline from OCT 2011, it seems evident that the declines have unfolded into a double zigzag pattern, notice the divergence seen between wave W & wave Y.

Posted above is a more detailed look on the second zigzag (wave Y) wave A subdivided into an impulse and wave C took the form of an impulse with an extended first wave (the extended first wave ended In a failure fifth).

Notice the double divergence formed on the awesome oscillator.
ALT count: 1-2-3-4? from wave x (circle) high, this count suggests that the wave A of Y is still not complete
Regards,
Ahmed Farghaly

EDIT: The chart bellow is the more appropriate count.