Monday, December 10, 2012

Is the US bear market back into play?


The DJIA seems clear from a wave perspective, It seems probable that the move the kicked off in March 2009 has completed and the move to the downside has started. Wave (A) of this correction has unfolded into an impulse while wave (C) has unfolded into an ending diagonal. Let us keep in mind that if the ending diagonal count is accurate a swift sharp move is expected to unfold to the downside which shall fully retrace the diagonal in less time than it took to form. The beginning of the diagonal was at 9664 (minimum target). Another point to note is the double divergence/ triangle that formed on the MACD which is typical of an ending diagonal. If indeed the 2nd wave (march 2009 - October 2012) has completed we can expect the decline to take us bellow the march 2009 lows as wave 3 unfolds.

Regards,
Ahmed Farghaly