Dubai Financial Market, elliott wave outlook

Looking at a weekly chart it seems evident that the move from the 2005 high is a zigzag abc correction completing a decline at least of cycle degree but most probably one of supercycle degree. If we look at the wave relationships we will notice that the wave C(circle) ended at the equality target with wave A(circle) almost to the point. Another interesting thing to note is the ending diagonal that took place in the wave (5) of C(circle) which predicted a swift advance which is what is occurring at the moment. Lets now take a look at a 3 day chart to analyze the bounce that occurred post the 2012 lows.

I have two counts in the short term. First lets look at the count presented above. The third wave apears to have subdivided clearly into a 5 wave advance as labelled in parentheses. this count calls for a decline towards the 2000 mark before any further advance. We are currently flirting with the 1.618x wave 1(circle) target on semi log scale, and we are past it on linear scale. The one thing I dont like about this count is that the volume on the (5)th wave of 3(circle) is higher that its sister wave (3). Usually the 5th wave diverges in volume with the third wave that preceded it which is why I'm presenting the following count.

This count is more optimistic. It suggests that the wave 3(circle) is still in the making. We are currently patching up the wave 3 of (3) of 3(circle) this count suggests a much higher support for the upcoming declines which shall result in further rallies before a significant correction (wave 4(circle))is noticed in this market.

Regards,
Ahmed Farghaly