Looking at the big picture it seems quite difficult to arrive with a preferred count considering the counts we have on various currency pairs however presented here are the 3 long term counts I have on this currency pair, the market will indicate which one is the highest probability one as price action unfolds, fortunately they all point south.
This count complements the contracting triangle count that we have on the GBP/USD currency pair both should thrust down in favor of the US dollar. Here are the things I don't like about this count considering that this is a contracting triangle it should have Fibonacci relationships between alternate waves, in this proposed triangle however there are no Fibonacci relationships on arithmatic scale by any of the alternate waves which is fairly strange. This count also contradicts the potentially multi decade turn observed on the USDCHF ofcourse unless these two pairs lose their correlation which seems possible as odds greatly favor the idea of a multi decade turn in the EURCHF as well as the GBP/CHF as will be analyzed in detail later on this blog. so if anything the GBP/USD & EUR/USD have higher odds of maintaining their correlation due to their projected strength against their European peer the CHF. Please excuse me if this is too much to swallow but its just me thinking out loud. However the posts to follow will further clarify this point.
NOTE: This count also contradicts our long term view on US equities that ofcourse if they don't lose thier correlation as seemed evident since the October lows (the EUR falling into January as US equities formed a higher low) or could the decline on the Dow be only of cycle degree as per our alternate count stated on the previous post on the Dow Jones industrial average. (seems unlikely due to economic divergence between the 19th and the 20th century)
This count complements the counts I have on the USDCHF and the USDRUB currency pairs, However there are a handful of things I don't like about this count if intermediate wave (2) is to be considered complete. This second wave came after a 5-3-5-3-5 leading diagonal after which one would expect a strong retracement typically the 78.6% the extreme end of the proposed wave (2) failed to exceed the 38.2% in terms of price, in terms of time however the proposed (2)nd wave peak is about a third of the proposed diagonal wave (1) which is about the minimum I'd accept for 2 waves to be of the same degree, the points stated above makes me keep my mind open that the correction COULD still be in progress if you insist on going short now in fear of missing the move stops shall be above the may 2011 high which is pretty distant but from a risk to reward ratio seems quite appropriate if you aren't heavily leveraged
This count seems possible as well as non of the lower degree second waves broke the (0)-(2) trendline, however this wasn't the case in terms of the USDCHF which makes me a little skeptical of such a count however it calls for a lower stop than the count previously presented which would be above minor wave 2.
On a short term basis the count is a reflection of the counts presented earliar on the USDCHF and GBP/USD bearing in mind that the patterns haven't been confirmed complete yet it seems likely that a top is in, even if it isn't placing stops in an appropriate manner would keep you in the trade from a position trading standpoint however if your are a short term trader using high leverage you may want to be stopped out if prices pop up for one last push before declining substantially, here is an image of the short term count.
Regards,
Ahmed Farghaly
NOTE: This count also contradicts our long term view on US equities that ofcourse if they don't lose thier correlation as seemed evident since the October lows (the EUR falling into January as US equities formed a higher low) or could the decline on the Dow be only of cycle degree as per our alternate count stated on the previous post on the Dow Jones industrial average. (seems unlikely due to economic divergence between the 19th and the 20th century)
On a short term basis the count is a reflection of the counts presented earliar on the USDCHF and GBP/USD bearing in mind that the patterns haven't been confirmed complete yet it seems likely that a top is in, even if it isn't placing stops in an appropriate manner would keep you in the trade from a position trading standpoint however if your are a short term trader using high leverage you may want to be stopped out if prices pop up for one last push before declining substantially, here is an image of the short term count.
Regards,
Ahmed Farghaly
الله يعطيك الصحه و العافيه ،،، ترقيم ممتاز ،، و يتفق مع ما يحصل في اوروبا من ازمات ،، و ايضاً عدم وجود تسهيل كمي جديد من الفدرالي الامريكي ،، وهذا ما يعطي قوه للدولار في الفتره القادمه
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