Tuesday, July 3, 2012

It's is still early into the bull market despite the 40% rally this year

This is the DJ Egypt titans 20 index this is one of the indexes(the Egx 30 is the other) that ended with what I'm proposing to be a C wave failure which was about 61.8%x wave A. The EGX70, CMA general index & EGX100 made new lows in early 2012 & late 2011 relative to their 09 lows which I'm labeling the end of a super cycle correction. Notice the decline in volume towards the end of the super cycle decline, which is typical of what one would expect at the end of a second wave. Also notice that the volume during this year's bull run exceeded that of the previous bull market going into the peak in 2008. Another point to note is the potential inverse head and shoulders pattern that has been forming going into 2012,with a target above the 2010 high if the neckline is to be breached. If this target is obtained that would complete an even larger double bottom pattern ( 2009 low & 2011 low) which would project a target on logarithmic scale above the 2008 peak on this index, of course if this proves to be a super cycle degree low (which would be confirmed by an ROC 12 month period reading of above 100% or 1.0 depending on how your platform indicator) this bull market would exceed every bodies expectations. Another point to note is that intermediate wave two's extreme of social mode was evident by the cases of kills apparently by 'extremists' of 3 people for being liberal and enjoying their rights, is this highlighting an intermediate degree wave (2) correction extreme?

Regards
Ahmed Farghaly

PS a breach of the June 2012 lows would invalidate a wave (2) low. A decline bellow the Dec 2011 low would invalidate the wave (1) labeling.

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