Monday, July 9, 2012

EURUSD: A supercycle perspective



The EURUSD looks like a mirror image of the USD/NOK if you look back into the early 70's. It seems evident that in 2008 this market put in its Cycle Wave C high which lasted aprox 8 years, Not only is that a fibonacci number it also is equal to the time of the initial advance into the early 90's (Cycle wave A). Notice that we made it right towards the wave IV of smaller degree which put in its high in the early 70's. The outlook is terribly bearish for this pair. If you have been resisting shorting due to what some would argue to be a bearish extreme in sentiment, perhaps you should reconsider at the breach of the neckline of the complex head and shoulders pattern that would end about 7 years of basically sideways movement!

Regards,
Ahmed Farghaly

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